Inverse Recession Picks

Inverse Recession Picks

May 5, 2022

Investors are keeping an eye on the bond market as the U.S. 5-year and 30-year Treasury yields inverted at the end of March for the first time since 2006. The spread between the 2-year and the 10-year rate soon followed.

Why it matters: Yield curve inversions are seen by many economists as a recession indicator.

Some other correlations are a bit quirkier, like former Fed chair Alan Greenspan’s Men’s Underwear Index. Men’s underwear sales fell during the Great Recession but recovered again in 2010 alongside the economy.

Two surprising sectors which seem to be inverse economic indicators are lipstick and online dating.

  • Lipstick sales increased in the early 2000's recession as people would purchase lipsticks as an affordable luxury instead of expensive apparel.

  • Virtual First Dates. While people seemed to be pinching their pennies during the recession in 2008, Match.com had its strongest fourth quarter in seven years.  

The bottom line: Investing in an inverse indicator like online dating could make for a nice recession hedge. See options strategies for BMBL, MTCH.

Source: CNBC, Forbes

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© 2024 Olive Advisors Inc. All Rights Reserved.

By using this website, you accept and agree to Olive's Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. Olive's investment advisory services are available only to residents of the United States in jurisdictions where Olive is registered. Nothing on this website should be considered an offer, solicitation of an offer, or advice to buy or sell securities or investment products. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections are hypothetical in nature and may not reflect actual future performance. Account holdings and other information provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be considered investment recommendations. All performance information is shown for illustrative purposes only and excludes the impact of fees and taxes. The content on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a comprehensive description of Olive's services. For more information information on risks associated with options, please see disclosures.

Information provided by Olive Advisors Inc. is for informational and general educational purposes only and is not tax or financial advice.

Contact Olive at support@oliveinvest.com. 31 Hudson Yards, New York, NY 10001

© 2024 Olive Advisors Inc. All Rights Reserved.

By using this website, you accept and agree to Olive's Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. Olive's investment advisory services are available only to residents of the United States in jurisdictions where Olive is registered. Nothing on this website should be considered an offer, solicitation of an offer, or advice to buy or sell securities or investment products. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections are hypothetical in nature and may not reflect actual future performance. Account holdings and other information provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be considered investment recommendations. All performance information is shown for illustrative purposes only and excludes the impact of fees and taxes. The content on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a comprehensive description of Olive's services. For more information information on risks associated with options, please see disclosures.

Information provided by Olive Advisors Inc. is for informational and general educational purposes only and is not tax or financial advice.

Contact Olive at support@oliveinvest.com. 31 Hudson Yards, New York, NY 10001